Paul Martin has been one of the biggest targets of criticism for many Penguins fans this season. Rock Strongo, friend of the Elsinore All-Stars, has had enough of it. Armed with advanced statistics (for which he gives a huge thank you to Behind the Net), Rock makes his case for why Paul Martin is more valuable than many seem to think. So give it a read (especially fans of the Pittsburgh Penguins and/or advanced stats geeks) and let us all know what you think.
“All lies and jest/Still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest” - Paul Simon, “The Boxer”
A quote attributed frequently to Mark Twain, though he never actually uttered the words (Thanks Jeopardy!) states that the three principle kinds of untruths one will encounter in the world are lies, damned lies, and statistics. Although an amusing bon mot, I find it mostly employed by those who have run up against statistical evidence that disproves a cherished belief or argument.
But this isn’t about Mark Twain, of course. It’s about Paul Martin. Except not really. It’s ultimately about the Penguins fanbase and the power of groupthink. Post-lockout, there has always been one defenseman that has seemed to rile a large segment of Penguins fandom into a santorum-like frothy mix of rage, irrationality and poop. Sergei Gonchar (2005-2006), Ryan Whitney (2006-2009), Alex Goligoski (2009-2011), and now Paul Martin (2011-?) have all been the designated whipping boy and readily available scapegoat for any bad loss or deficient blueline performance.
Why has this been so? I cannot speak for any of the others, but I believe I know why Martin has been singled out this season. There is no denying he had a rough stretch of play to start the season. That’s a bad time for any player to go through a tough patch because expectations are highest and the maximum amount of people (pre-playoff) are tuned in and watching. What contributed to the terminal velocity the Martin hate train has reached, however, is most probably the explosion of Twitter and fan blogs.
The things you used to shout at your TV set or grumble to the guy beside you are now shared with hundreds or even thousands of people instantly. Fleeting impressions of the moment that formerly faded with the next beer now become amplified within an echo chamber and rapidly harden into conventional wisdom as the same ideas are repeated endlessly and people join up with the prevailing sentiment. Now, less than two full seasons after fans greeted Martin’s signing with joy, there are calls from many of those same people to trade him for a slightly used pair of underwear and to do it now.
If you couldn’t have guessed by now, I disagree. I don’t deny Martin has had his ups and downs—I can think of four or six games when he’s been truly terrible—but enough is enough. Every player has horrendous games. Overall, Paul Martin is an extremely valuable contributor to the Penguins’ defensive corps whose absence would leave a hole that’s difficult to fill. It’s time to take a close look at the stats and see just who is the damned liar: myself or pretty much everyone else.
Evaluating a player’s even strength performance is always a good place to start since that is the game situation in which a player will see the vast majority of his minutes. For the purposes of this and all following analysis, I have only looked at players who have played at least 25 games this season. This allows us to get a good look at the unquestioned top 7 of the Pittsburgh Penguins: Deryk Engelland, Kris Letang, Ben Lovejoy, Paul Martin, Zbynek Michalek, Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik. Let’s lay out the numbers first and then analyze what it all means.
Games Played
Matt Niskanen — 58
Deryk Engelland — 53
Paul Martin — 52
Brooks Orpik — 51
Zbynek Michalek — 39
Kris Letang — 36
Ben Lovejoy — 26
Time On Ice Per 60 Minutes (pretty simple here; the average number of 5 on 5 minutes a player sees per game)
Brooks Orpik – 18.24 minutes
Kris Letang – 18.06 minutes
Paul Martin – 17.65 minutes
Zbynek Michalek — 16.90 minutes
Deryk Engelland — 14.94 minutes
Matt Niskanen — 14.71 minutes
Ben Lovejoy — 12.53 minutes
Quality of Competition or QCOMP (a statistic that rates the average strength of opposition a player is put up against. The greater the number, the better quality opponents a player is facing when on the ice.)
Paul Martin - .063
Zbynek Michalek - .055
Kris Letang - .038
Brooks Orpik - .014
Deryk Engelland - -.006
Matt Niskanen - -.039
Ben Lovejoy - -.081
Quality of Teammates or QTEAM (a stat that rates the average quality of teammates a player is with. The higher the number, the higher the quality of teammates a player is skating with)
Brooks Orpik - .188
Matt Niskanen - .035
Deryk Engelland - .002
Ben Lovejoy - -.009
Kris Letang - -.033
Paul Martin - -.088
Zbynek Michalek - -.161
Offensive Zone Start % (Measures the percentage of shifts a player starts when his team is in the offensive zone. Since it’s easier to be on offense than defense, the lower the number means a defenseman is starting in the defensive zone more often and thus has a more difficult job)
Ben Lovejoy — 60.9%
Zbynek Michalek — 56%
Matt Niskanen — 55.6%
Deryk Engelland — 53.9%
Brooks Orpik — 53.4%
Paul Martin — 52.9%
Kris Letang — 50%
Let’s take a quick look at times spent on special teams too, shall we?
Powerplay Minutes Per Game
Kris Letang — 4.18
Matt Niskanen — 2.29
Paul Martin — 2.20
Zbynek Michalek — 0.24
Brooks Orpik — 0.08
Ben Lovejoy — 0.05
Deryk Engelland — 0.01
Penalty Killing Minutes Per Game
Zbynek Michalek — 3.54
Brooks Orpik — 3.27
Paul Martin — 2.70
Kris Letang — 1.69
Deryk Engelland — 1.14
Matt Niskanen — 0.62
Ben Lovejoy — 0.50
Finally, let’s list some of the more basic stats that have value (this would not be +/-, by the by, though more on that later)
Hits
Brooks Orpik — 188; 3.69 per game
Deryk Engelland — 117; 2.21 per game
Matt Niskanen — 75; 1.29 per game
Kris Letang — 56; 1.56 per game
Zbynek Michalek — 31; .79 per game
Ben Lovejoy — 23; .88 per game
Paul Martin — 14; .27 per game
Blocked Shots
Zbynek Michalek — 93; 2.38 per game
Brooks Orpik — 90; 1.76 per game
Paul Martin — 86; 1.65 per game
Kris Letang — 62; 1.72 per game
Matt Niskanen — 60; 1.03 per game
Deryk Engelland — 55; 1.04 per game
Ben Lovejoy — 27; 1.17 per game
Giveaways
Kris Letang — 30; .83 per game
Paul Martin — 26; .5 per game
Zbynek Michalek — 23; .59 per game
Brooks Orpik — 16; .31 per game
Deryk Engelland — 15; .28 per game
Matt Niskanen — 15; .26 per game
Ben Lovejoy — 7; .27 per game
Takeaways
Paul Martin — 23; .44 per game
Kris Letang — 21; .58 per game
Matt Niskanen — 9; .16 per game
Brooks Orpik — 9; .18 per game
Deryk Engelland — 7; .13 per game
Zbynek Michalek — 6; .15 per game
Ben Lovejoy — 0; 0 per game
Whew. Damn, that’s a lot of info. I’ll sit back for a minute and let you process it all. Read it twice if need be. I know it’s a lot to digest. Take a Tums and I’ll be here
But this isn’t about Mark Twain, of course. It’s about Paul Martin. Except not really. It’s ultimately about the Penguins fanbase and the power of groupthink. Post-lockout, there has always been one defenseman that has seemed to rile a large segment of Penguins fandom into a santorum-like frothy mix of rage, irrationality and poop. Sergei Gonchar (2005-2006), Ryan Whitney (2006-2009), Alex Goligoski (2009-2011), and now Paul Martin (2011-?) have all been the designated whipping boy and readily available scapegoat for any bad loss or deficient blueline performance.
Why has this been so? I cannot speak for any of the others, but I believe I know why Martin has been singled out this season. There is no denying he had a rough stretch of play to start the season. That’s a bad time for any player to go through a tough patch because expectations are highest and the maximum amount of people (pre-playoff) are tuned in and watching. What contributed to the terminal velocity the Martin hate train has reached, however, is most probably the explosion of Twitter and fan blogs.
The things you used to shout at your TV set or grumble to the guy beside you are now shared with hundreds or even thousands of people instantly. Fleeting impressions of the moment that formerly faded with the next beer now become amplified within an echo chamber and rapidly harden into conventional wisdom as the same ideas are repeated endlessly and people join up with the prevailing sentiment. Now, less than two full seasons after fans greeted Martin’s signing with joy, there are calls from many of those same people to trade him for a slightly used pair of underwear and to do it now.
If you couldn’t have guessed by now, I disagree. I don’t deny Martin has had his ups and downs—I can think of four or six games when he’s been truly terrible—but enough is enough. Every player has horrendous games. Overall, Paul Martin is an extremely valuable contributor to the Penguins’ defensive corps whose absence would leave a hole that’s difficult to fill. It’s time to take a close look at the stats and see just who is the damned liar: myself or pretty much everyone else.
Evaluating a player’s even strength performance is always a good place to start since that is the game situation in which a player will see the vast majority of his minutes. For the purposes of this and all following analysis, I have only looked at players who have played at least 25 games this season. This allows us to get a good look at the unquestioned top 7 of the Pittsburgh Penguins: Deryk Engelland, Kris Letang, Ben Lovejoy, Paul Martin, Zbynek Michalek, Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik. Let’s lay out the numbers first and then analyze what it all means.
Games Played
Matt Niskanen — 58
Deryk Engelland — 53
Paul Martin — 52
Brooks Orpik — 51
Zbynek Michalek — 39
Kris Letang — 36
Ben Lovejoy — 26
Time On Ice Per 60 Minutes (pretty simple here; the average number of 5 on 5 minutes a player sees per game)
Brooks Orpik – 18.24 minutes
Kris Letang – 18.06 minutes
Paul Martin – 17.65 minutes
Zbynek Michalek — 16.90 minutes
Deryk Engelland — 14.94 minutes
Matt Niskanen — 14.71 minutes
Ben Lovejoy — 12.53 minutes
Quality of Competition or QCOMP (a statistic that rates the average strength of opposition a player is put up against. The greater the number, the better quality opponents a player is facing when on the ice.)
Paul Martin - .063
Zbynek Michalek - .055
Kris Letang - .038
Brooks Orpik - .014
Deryk Engelland - -.006
Matt Niskanen - -.039
Ben Lovejoy - -.081
Quality of Teammates or QTEAM (a stat that rates the average quality of teammates a player is with. The higher the number, the higher the quality of teammates a player is skating with)
Brooks Orpik - .188
Matt Niskanen - .035
Deryk Engelland - .002
Ben Lovejoy - -.009
Kris Letang - -.033
Paul Martin - -.088
Zbynek Michalek - -.161
Offensive Zone Start % (Measures the percentage of shifts a player starts when his team is in the offensive zone. Since it’s easier to be on offense than defense, the lower the number means a defenseman is starting in the defensive zone more often and thus has a more difficult job)
Ben Lovejoy — 60.9%
Zbynek Michalek — 56%
Matt Niskanen — 55.6%
Deryk Engelland — 53.9%
Brooks Orpik — 53.4%
Paul Martin — 52.9%
Kris Letang — 50%
Let’s take a quick look at times spent on special teams too, shall we?
Powerplay Minutes Per Game
Kris Letang — 4.18
Matt Niskanen — 2.29
Paul Martin — 2.20
Zbynek Michalek — 0.24
Brooks Orpik — 0.08
Ben Lovejoy — 0.05
Deryk Engelland — 0.01
Penalty Killing Minutes Per Game
Zbynek Michalek — 3.54
Brooks Orpik — 3.27
Paul Martin — 2.70
Kris Letang — 1.69
Deryk Engelland — 1.14
Matt Niskanen — 0.62
Ben Lovejoy — 0.50
Finally, let’s list some of the more basic stats that have value (this would not be +/-, by the by, though more on that later)
Hits
Brooks Orpik — 188; 3.69 per game
Deryk Engelland — 117; 2.21 per game
Matt Niskanen — 75; 1.29 per game
Kris Letang — 56; 1.56 per game
Zbynek Michalek — 31; .79 per game
Ben Lovejoy — 23; .88 per game
Paul Martin — 14; .27 per game
Blocked Shots
Zbynek Michalek — 93; 2.38 per game
Brooks Orpik — 90; 1.76 per game
Paul Martin — 86; 1.65 per game
Kris Letang — 62; 1.72 per game
Matt Niskanen — 60; 1.03 per game
Deryk Engelland — 55; 1.04 per game
Ben Lovejoy — 27; 1.17 per game
Giveaways
Kris Letang — 30; .83 per game
Paul Martin — 26; .5 per game
Zbynek Michalek — 23; .59 per game
Brooks Orpik — 16; .31 per game
Deryk Engelland — 15; .28 per game
Matt Niskanen — 15; .26 per game
Ben Lovejoy — 7; .27 per game
Takeaways
Paul Martin — 23; .44 per game
Kris Letang — 21; .58 per game
Matt Niskanen — 9; .16 per game
Brooks Orpik — 9; .18 per game
Deryk Engelland — 7; .13 per game
Zbynek Michalek — 6; .15 per game
Ben Lovejoy — 0; 0 per game
Whew. Damn, that’s a lot of info. I’ll sit back for a minute and let you process it all. Read it twice if need be. I know it’s a lot to digest. Take a Tums and I’ll be here
…
Ready? Okay, then. If nothing else, you can glean two pearls of insight from those numbers. 1) Kris Letang is the Pens’ #1 defenseman. 2) Paul Martin is their #2.
Martin’s Strengths:
Martin’s Strengths:
1) Durability. Out of a possible 148 games (including the playoffs) as a Penguin, Martin has dressed for 136 of them or 91.8%
2) Minutes. Martin is second on the team in total ice time, skating a total average of over 23 minutes a game, trailing only Letang and leading Orpik at #3 by a full minute.
3) Versatility. Martin plays in all three situations.
4) He plays against the toughest competition. His QCOMP is easily the highest on the team, meaning Martin is routinely sent out against the best the opposing team has to offer.
5) He backs up the lower lines. Only Michalek has a lower QTEAM rating, meaning when the lower lines are out there and the coaches need someone they can trust to protect them from mistakes, Martin often gets the call.
6) He’s a thief. Martin is second only to Letang in average takeaways per game and third place isn’t even close.
7) He blocks shots. Though Martin is only 4th in average blocks per game, his numbers compare favorably with Letang and Orpik, clustered closely at 2 and 3. It’s no surprise everyone trails Michalek by a heavy margin; he was signed as a shot blocking machine.
I’m not arguing Paul is flawless, though. He does have some notable weaknesses…
1) Lack of physicality. Martin has always been a guy who’s gotten by via sound positioning and fundamentals rather than brute force. Still, 14 hits over the course of 52 games is pretty inexcusable for anyone. You’ve got to get out there and throw the body around at some point.
I’m not arguing Paul is flawless, though. He does have some notable weaknesses…
1) Lack of physicality. Martin has always been a guy who’s gotten by via sound positioning and fundamentals rather than brute force. Still, 14 hits over the course of 52 games is pretty inexcusable for anyone. You’ve got to get out there and throw the body around at some point.
2) Occasional mental lapses. A turnover every other game isn’t what you want, particularly since many of them have the tendency to end up in the back of your net. Still, it’s instructive to note that Kris Letang, mentioned as a future Norris winner, turns the puck over almost once a game, and yet nary a word gets said about it. I also wonder how much of it is a function of Letang and Martin being the two guys most often called upon to lug the puck through the neutral zone.
So, if I’m right about all this, why does Martin have the bull’s eye on his back for fan venom? I believe there are three main reasons.
1) As mentioned earlier, his rough start to the season and the toxic chemistry of the Internet has lead to every subsequent mistake being magnified by a factor of 20,000 or so.
So, if I’m right about all this, why does Martin have the bull’s eye on his back for fan venom? I believe there are three main reasons.
1) As mentioned earlier, his rough start to the season and the toxic chemistry of the Internet has lead to every subsequent mistake being magnified by a factor of 20,000 or so.
2) His contract. Hang out on Twitter during a Pens game. (On second thought, don’t). Inevitably you’ll see a person or fifty making a disparaging reference regarding Martin’s $5MM per year salary. Hate to tell you, kids, but it’s not Paul Martin’s fault he gets paid that much. Know who to blame for that? Ray Shero.
Of course the entire point of this little exercise to argue that Martin is a top tier defenseman for the Pens who earns his money, but even accepting for a moment the lesson here is the critical importance of drafting and developing talent from within. The nature of the free agent market in all pro sports tends to inflate the dollar amount of contracts given out. That’s why a defenseman of Martin’s caliber costs $5MM annually while the Pens can sign Kris Letang for $3.5MM per year. So keep that in mind every July 1st as you pine for the latest shiny toy available for purchase.
Of course the entire point of this little exercise to argue that Martin is a top tier defenseman for the Pens who earns his money, but even accepting for a moment the lesson here is the critical importance of drafting and developing talent from within. The nature of the free agent market in all pro sports tends to inflate the dollar amount of contracts given out. That’s why a defenseman of Martin’s caliber costs $5MM annually while the Pens can sign Kris Letang for $3.5MM per year. So keep that in mind every July 1st as you pine for the latest shiny toy available for purchase.
3) His plus/minus rating. Folks, if you never listen to a thing I say ever again, please understand that other than pitcher wins in baseball, plus/minus rating is the single most useless, uninformative statistic yet devised in sports. It means nothing; I don’t care if a guy is +100 or -100. There are just too many other factors at play in a hockey game for it to mean a damn thing at all. All fans see is that Martin is a -11. Boo! That must mean he sucks, right? No. No, it doesn’t.
It’s interesting to contrast Martin with his fellow big-money free agent acquisition of July 2010, Zbynek Michalek. Martin is a -11 through 52 games this season. Michalek is a -10 through 39 so presumably he’s much, much worse. His cap hit is only $1MM less than Martin’s. And yet no one is ready to run him out of town on a rail. I do fear, however, that if Martin is traded before the end of his contract and Zbynek stays, the focus will turn to him. Z fans, if/when it happens, don’t say I didn’t warn you. Might want to sharpen your keyboards and develop your arguments now.
I don’t know what the future holds for Paul Martin or any of the other Penguins. The trade deadline is approaching and four months after that is draft day. If I had to take a guess, though, I would say that Martin finishes out this season with the Penguins but is traded away either on draft day or at some point during July. Given the recent $5MM per year extension given to James Neal, cap space will be at quite a premium, especially given the uncertain CBA situation. Martin has a partial NTC, but I have to wonder if he wouldn’t waive it to go most anywhere to get out of a situation where he is regarded as a sort of Typhoid Mary of the blueline. Ryan Whitney has never seemed more relaxed than in Edmonton, after all.
If I’m right and Martin is traded this off-season or at any point before the expiry of his contract, do not let anyone tell you he was a bust signing and a worthless bum. Those damned lying statistics prove otherwise. Then hit the Simon & Garfunkel and walk away.
It’s interesting to contrast Martin with his fellow big-money free agent acquisition of July 2010, Zbynek Michalek. Martin is a -11 through 52 games this season. Michalek is a -10 through 39 so presumably he’s much, much worse. His cap hit is only $1MM less than Martin’s. And yet no one is ready to run him out of town on a rail. I do fear, however, that if Martin is traded before the end of his contract and Zbynek stays, the focus will turn to him. Z fans, if/when it happens, don’t say I didn’t warn you. Might want to sharpen your keyboards and develop your arguments now.
I don’t know what the future holds for Paul Martin or any of the other Penguins. The trade deadline is approaching and four months after that is draft day. If I had to take a guess, though, I would say that Martin finishes out this season with the Penguins but is traded away either on draft day or at some point during July. Given the recent $5MM per year extension given to James Neal, cap space will be at quite a premium, especially given the uncertain CBA situation. Martin has a partial NTC, but I have to wonder if he wouldn’t waive it to go most anywhere to get out of a situation where he is regarded as a sort of Typhoid Mary of the blueline. Ryan Whitney has never seemed more relaxed than in Edmonton, after all.
If I’m right and Martin is traded this off-season or at any point before the expiry of his contract, do not let anyone tell you he was a bust signing and a worthless bum. Those damned lying statistics prove otherwise. Then hit the Simon & Garfunkel and walk away.
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